loading…
German soldiers prepare for NATO vs Russia war. Photo/Reuters
BERLIN – Germany is preparing for a scenario in which Russia launches an “open attack” against NATO in the summer of 2025 after achieving a major victory against Ukraine.
This was reported by German media, Bild, on Sunday (14/1/2024), citing secret documents. Moscow has repeatedly denied having plans to attack the United States (US)-led military bloc.
A German Defense Ministry report reportedly seen by Bild provides a month-by-month outline of the likely “path to conflict” between the West and Russia. The scenario is to start a new mobilization in February 2024 with Russia calling up an additional 200,000 troops. Moscow insisted it did not need to take such action, citing the large number of volunteers.
Based on the scenario outlined in the document, Moscow then launched a powerful spring offensive against Ukraine that resulted in Kiev, suffering from inadequate Western support, surrendering.
The report then described Russia as launching “first covert and then increasingly overt attacks” against the Baltic states in July, waging cyber warfare and sparking unrest among the local Russian-speaking population.
This crisis accelerated Russia’s military buildup in western Russia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad. At the same time, Moscow positioned itself to seize the Suwalki Pass, according to the newspaper – a narrow strip of territory in northeastern Poland between Belarus and Kaliningrad, resulting in “unrest with heavy casualties,” and Russia accused NATO of preparing to attack the Suwalki Pass.
Poland and the Baltic states reported “increased threats from Russia” at a NATO Council meeting in January 2025. However, Moscow used the developments as a pretext to move additional troops to the border region in March 2025.
Amid the rising tensions described, Germany contributed 30,000 troops to the alliance-building effort. According to the strategic forecast, NATO will decide on “credible preventive measures” by May 2025. The scenario ends at this point, and Bild notes that it remains an “open question” whether Russia chooses to withdraw in such a situation.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova scoffed at the report, calling it “last year’s strong zodiac forecast.” Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied any plans to attack NATO, arguing that Moscow has “no geopolitical, economic… or military interests” in waging war against the bloc.
However, Russia for decades has raised concerns about the alliance’s expansion into its borders, and views it as a real threat. Putin previously cited Ukraine’s desire to join the bloc as one of the main reasons for the current conflict.
(ahm)