For three decades, the West and the international community have looked to the idea of two states – one Israel, one Palestine – as the basis for peace in the Middle East. Even after the Hamas massacre on October 7 and Israel’s massive counteroffensive, many believe the idea is still the only way forward.
More than 1,200 people were killed and 242 kidnapped in attacks on Israel carried out by Hamas, an organization designated as terrorist by the US. Israel’s military response has claimed more than 11,000 lives, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
But political scientist Uriel Abulof of Tel Aviv University believes the large number of casualties on both sides does not make peace impossible.
“A two-state solution is still possible, perhaps more so than before, because there is the potential for both sides to understand that this is not a conflict between the majority of Israelis and Palestinians, (both of whom) want to live side by side without radical leaders,” he said.
“On the one hand there is Hamas, which we have to deal with militarily, and on the other hand there is Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition, who need to be dealt with politically,” he told VOA. “If this happens – if that happens, there’s a better chance of finding a solution.”
Hussein Ibish of the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute also believes that a permanent solution to the decades-long conflict is only possible with a two-state model.
“Perhaps it should be done in stages, but with the two countries as a common goal that is explicitly spelled out from the start,” said Ibish, who believes that even such initial steps have special prerequisites.
“Israel must ultimately and formally accept the Palestinian right to a state and its necessity. “The construction and establishment of settlements must be completely stopped,” he said.
Instead, Ibish told VOA, Palestinians need to condemn the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 and vow to cease hostilities, while the Palestinian Authority must be strengthened politically.
A measured plan or an attempt to hide something?
Other experts are skeptical. Omer Bartov, a professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University, described the two-state plan as proverbial.
“People are talking about a two-state solution because they have to talk about something, and that’s the only plan that exists right now,” he told VOA. “Only Palestinians will live in a Palestinian state, and only Jews will live in Israel.”
Bartov believes the two-state solution plan is unrealistic because it would leave the Palestinians economically weak and dependent on Israel, and “because there are between half a million and 750,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, and their expulsion from the territory would mean civil war.”
He noted that in the region there are also 2 million Palestinians who already live in Israel.
A Palestinian carries his country’s flag in solidarity with Jerusalem, in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, on September 9, 2022. (Photo: AP/Adel Hana)
Israel captured the West Bank, along with East Jerusalem, from Jordan in the Six Day War of 1967. Israel captured Gaza from Egypt in the same war but withdrew from the territory in 2005.
“There are other options, and these were discussed before the current war occurred,” Bartov said. “This is not something that can happen quickly, but the possibility must be considered. And it is a kind of confederation of Israeli and Palestinian states, according to the borders in 1967.”
A single confederated state, he said, would allow the return of Palestinian refugees whose ancestors fled the region in 1948, and “Jerusalem could become a common capital.”
“There will be a difference between citizenship and residence,” Bartov said. “Jewish settlers can continue to live in the Palestinian state but behave in accordance with applicable regulations. And Palestinians can return from exile and live, for example, in Haifa.”
A one-state solution “currently seems like a crazy proposition” given the current hostilities, he said, adding that continued violence would only lead to “the erosion of democracy in Israeli society” as well as the rise of “authoritarian elements” and even “racists.” .”
The important role of the US
Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute said US involvement would be critical to a permanent solution to the conflict.
“The US is the only foreign power that has the influence and power to be the guarantor of the peace agreement (two countries),” he said. “Unfortunately, the U.S. domestic political scene downplays its role in this because it is politically pointless and too expensive to put serious pressure on Israel.”
Tel Aviv University’s Abulof said President Joe Biden should take the lead and use the principle of “punishment and reward” for both sides.
“He can tell Israel that he will fully support them and give them security guarantees, as well as deal with Iran and Hezbollah,” Abulof said, adding that Biden would then need to promise US-financed “democratization to the Palestinians.”
If Israel does not agree to this plan, he said, the US could threaten not to use its veto in the UN Security Council to stop anti-Israel resolutions.
Bartov of Brown University agrees that no plan can be implemented without the US support on which Israel relies politically and militarily.
Without this, according to him, the nightmare of endless war will continue.
“This is something of a dream for both Jews and Palestinians – many hope that they will wake up one morning and find that the other side is gone,” he said.
“But no one left. Everyone is there, making each other’s lives miserable and living in fear. They truly felt hopeless. That’s why the perspective must be changed – how to make these two groups of people live side by side, not apart.” (my/jm)