Poland’s liberal opposition on Monday (16/10) celebrated the results of exit polls at polling stations (TPS) showing that they had won a parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election. Local media reported that the number of people who voted in this election recorded the highest record since the fall of Communism.
The shock result would end eight years in power of the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, whose relations with the European Union and neighboring Ukraine have plunged to a new low.
The opposition, led by former European Union chief Donald Tusk, called the parliamentary elections a “last chance” to save democracy.
“Democracy has won,” he said Sunday evening, saying a “gloomy” era was over.
Former Polish President and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Lech Walesa votes during parliamentary elections in Gdansk, Poland October 15, 2023. (Bartosz Banka/Agencja Wyborcza.pl/via REUTERS)
For voters in the capital Warsaw, where support for nationalists is typically lower, the election results marked a major shift. “Women’s rights are very important to me and I really hope something will change here,” Aleksandra Metlewicz, an interior designer, told AFP.
The 33-year-old said she wanted “the good times to return, to replace the “Middle Ages” that Poland is stuck in.
More Women Vote
PiS’s government is based on traditional Catholic values and Poland has the strictest abortion laws in the EU. Tusk has promised to liberalize all of that.
The issue, analysts say, is driving unprecedented mobilization among women and helping to balance liberal opposition parties.
“Previously, half of women said they would not vote. However, polls outside polling stations show more women than men voted,” said Justyna Kajta, a sociologist at SWPS University in Warsaw.
A woman votes during Polish parliamentary elections at a polling station in the village of Gluchow, Poland, October 15, 2023. (REUTERS/Lukasz Glowala)
For Kajta, the turnout of women voters, estimated at 73.7 percent, was the main “positive surprise” in the election.
Projections based on preliminary results and an opinion poll conducted by Ipsos on Monday showed Tusk’s Civic Coalition could win 161 of parliament’s 460 seats.
Two small parties that are potential allies, Third Way and Left, would win 57 and 30 seats respectively. That means the three got a majority of 248 votes.
Many Happy Parties
For eight years, PiS has set Poland on a collision course with the European Union, through controversial judicial reforms, refusal to accept migrants and hardline abortion policies.
PiS stepped up nationalist rhetoric in its campaign and even clashed with war-torn neighbor Ukraine, despite Poland’s strong solidarity with Kyiv in the face of a Russian invasion.
For opposition voters, ending PiS rule would restore Poland’s reputation on the international stage. “I am sure that now all (international) relations will improve and become normal. But this will take time,” Krzysztof Dabrowski, a retiree from Warsaw, told AFP.
Supporters of the coalition of the centrist Poland 2050 party and the agrarian Polish People’s Party celebrate their victory at election headquarters in Warsaw, Poland, Sunday, October 15, 2023. (AP/Michal Dyjuk)
Tusk served as prime minister of Poland between 2007 and 2014 and as president of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. He has vowed to restore relations with Brussels if he returns to power and unblock European Union funds frozen due to the ongoing deadlock over the rule of law in Poland.
Many Poles queued late into the night to cast their votes in what all parties called the most important election since the fall of Communism.
Although the election results appear to give the liberal opposition a better chance of forming the next government, there is still caution among many voters.
“I’m curious about what will happen next and how the people who will take power will act,” said 42-year-old businessman Karol Jedlinski, adding that he was “far from euphoric”.
He has difficulty imagining Tusk leading Poland again. “For me he is more of a figure from the past,” he said.
Kaczynski Still Has Hope
Much still depends on President Andrzej Duda. Analysts warn that any governing coalition formed by the opposition could face friction with the president, who is a PiS ally.
Meanwhile, PiS appeared as if it did not care about its defeat and instead declared itself the winner of the election because the party appeared to have received the most votes.
Deputy Prime Minister of Poland and Leader of the Law and Justice Party (PiS), Jaroslaw Kaczynski (center) and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (number three from left) of the Law and Justice party at PiS headquarters in Warsaw, Poland October 15, 2023. (Wojtek Radwanski /AFP)
His party chairman, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said he still had “hope” of forming a government. “For now, it’s not a closed road,” he said late Sunday as polls showed an opposition win.
The most likely coalition partner for PiS is Confederation, a far-right party that has called for an end to Poland’s massive aid to Ukraine and has campaigned on a strongly anti-migrant platform.
But polls suggest Pis and the Confederation together will not gain a majority, with a total of just 212 seats.
Kyiv and its supporters in Western countries have been watching Poland’s elections closely for any impact on aid to Ukraine.
Poland has been a frontrunner for Ukraine in the European Union and NATO and has hosted one million Ukrainian refugees, but many Poles feel overwhelmed by hosting them.