Ukraine faces extremely different prospects under a possible presidency of candidates Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. As the presidential election campaign draws to a close, neither candidate has laid out exactly how they plan to deal with Russia's war on Ukraine. As Voice of America correspondent Anita Powell reports, experts say that in the same period, the battle itself in Ukraine has changed radically, giving Ukraine more power in determining its own destiny.
Analysts have mixed views on Ukraine's future if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins a second term.
“It is widely believed that Trump's return to the White House is not the best scenario for Ukraine, although there are other opinions that the situation may not be so bad.” says Oleksiy Melnyk from the Ukrainian organization 'Razumkov'.
Former President Trump has said he will end the war quickly even though his running mate, JD Vance, has previously said he 'doesn't care' about Ukraine, leaving Ukrainians unsure of what to think.
A possible presidency by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris also remained unclear for Ukrainians, a country that knows former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden very well.
Ms. Harris has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and represented President Biden at high-level transatlantic security meetings. However, throughout the election campaign Ms. Harris has spoken briefly about Ukraine and how it differs from her rival Trump.
“Trump encouraged Putin to attack our allies. He said that Russia can do whatever it wants. Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia's plan. I helped mobilize a global response of over 50 countries against Putin's aggression. As president, I will take a strong stand for Ukraine and our NATO allies,” said Mrs. Harris.
Analysts say Ms. Harris is likely to continue Mr. Biden's pro-Ukraine policies. Meanwhile, former President Trump's foreign policy statements remain as unclear as before. This included a promise that he would end the war within a day:
“It's not entirely clear how he's going to do that. The fear is that he will do this simply by abandoning Ukraine, cutting off funding and pressuring President Zelensky for negotiations at a time when Putin would have an opportunity to strengthen his negotiating position.” says Andrew Payne of the University of London.
However, Mr Payne says the battleground has now shifted with the decision by Ukrainian forces to strike across the border and take control of Russian territory.
While analysts predict that Ukraine will neither seek nor succeed in keeping this territory, the new reality will help Kiev regardless of who wins the elections in the United States. Analyst Andrew Payne also says President Biden could step in at a key stage.
“I wouldn't expect any change in Washington's position on military operations in Ukraine before November, but it remains to be seen what happens in the period between November and January, regardless of who wins the election, to see if Ukraine will 'a little more room for action is offered' says analyst Payne.
As both candidates continue to race, what may happen in Ukraine may not depend on the US president, whoever she or he may be.
