Promoted to the post of prime minister after a court ruling ousted his predecessor, political experts say Thailand's youngest ever elected leader, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, may be the last card his political dynasty can play as it seeks to win back Thai voters.
However, the risks to Thailand's political frontline have been highlighted in recent weeks by the judges, who have once again shown they are willing to reshape the politics of a kingdom mired in political crisis for the past two decades.
Paetongtarn is the 37-year-old daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been at the centre of Thailand's political turmoil since he won a landslide election victory in 2001.
On Sunday (18/8), he officially took office as Thailand's 31st prime minister following the abrupt dismissal of real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from his post, by the Constitutional Court in an ethics investigation.
Paetongtarn was elected by parliament, despite the fact that he had limited political experience and had never been directly elected by the public. In his first press conference, he asserted that he would be “himself, with his own goals.”
But few believe that Thaksin, a 75-year-old billionaire who served twice as prime minister before being ousted from office in a 2006 coup, will refrain from seizing control of government.
She returned to Thailand on August 22 last year after 15 years in exile through a power-sharing deal with her former royalist arch-foe and blocked her pro-democracy Move Forward Party (MFP) from governing.
“Thaksin is still very much involved behind the scenes,” said Verapat Pariyawong, who teaches Thai law and politics at the University of London SOAS and is also an adviser to Thailand's parliamentary committee. “His daughter will take on one of the toughest jobs he knows very well.”
The Shinawatra party was once seen as a populist champion of the poor, and as such they posed a threat to the pro-royal elite, who have hit them with two coups and endless court cases.
However, the fight for democracy has been taken over by Move Forward, which won the last election in 2023 and shocked Thaksin's Pheu Thai party by beating it to second place.
“Since Pheu Thai lost the election, their priority is just to win the next election, everything else is just a byproduct,” Sirote Klampaiboon, an independent academic and political commentator, told VOA. “Their main goal is to win the next election.”
Move Forward was dissolved a week before Srettha was removed from office by the same court, in a move Sirote described as a “parallel force” in Thailand supporting a conservative takeover of power.
The MFP has changed its name to the People's Party and is working to rebuild its party to achieve a decisive victory in the 2027 elections.
Damaged image
Paetongtarn's first task will be to appoint a cabinet that reflects the interests of the coalition government, with conservative factions likely to jostle for posts in the biggest ministries.
Thailand’s sluggish economy and the fall of Srettha’s government have cast doubt on a nearly $14 billion digital currency bailout that was planned to be used to stimulate the economy as well as major infrastructure projects such as a “land bridge” in the country’s south to cut shipping times from Asia and plans to legalize giant casinos to boost tax revenues.
In his first speech as prime minister, Paetongtarn said he was “obliged to make every inch of Thailand a land of opportunity, where everyone dares to dream, create and write their own future.”
The problem, Paetongtarn’s critics say, is that many Thais no longer see their country as a place of opportunity. Thailand’s household debt is at a record high (more than 90 percent), wages are low, and pro-democracy voters say the economy is divided by monopoly businesses and political power is shared by a narrow elite, for now again dominated by the Paetongtarn family.
“The 'image' of the Shinawatra family has not been selling well lately, populist policies have proven to be ineffective because 20 years have passed and people are still poor and in debt,” Aat Pisanwanich, an independent academic and international economics expert, told VOA. “Under this government, things will be the same if not worse… based on many interviews with Paetongtarn, he doesn't really understand our economic problems.”
There are also concerns that there could be threats lurking within Thai politics, where loyalties and alliances change rapidly and the courts are always ready to intervene.
Analyst Sirote said the government would be prepared for possible “tense circumstances” such as cabinet nominees being investigated for past wrongdoings or suspicious assets Paetongtarn may have.
But you can never rule out a family that has three members who are direct prime ministers and two who are party leaders, he added.
“Even if something happens to Paetongtarn politically, the image of the Shinawatra family will not simply disappear from Thai politics.” (rz/rs)
