Analysts say the latest collision between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels near a disputed reef in the South China Sea is part of Beijing’s campaign to force Manila to soften its position. They say it also raises questions about whether the two countries can maintain calm, despite reaching a tentative agreement to avoid clashes in July.
Monday’s incident, which left a gaping hole in a Philippine coast guard vessel, occurred near Saibina Shoal, an area within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, or EEZ. China says the partially submerged reef is part of its territory.
“China is trying to intimidate the Philippines and force them to reduce their coast guard presence around (disputed reefs in the South China Sea,)” said Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Koh said Monday's incident around Sabina Shoal was the first reported clash near the reef, and showed that China's coast guard was using a systematic approach to enforce its territorial claims near three major flashpoints in the South China Sea, including Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal.
“These clashes are no longer isolated incidents because China is using a systematic approach around the three points of contention with the Philippines,” Koh told VOA by telephone.
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a major international trade route, including the area around the Sabina Shelf. That's despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that China's claims have no basis in international law.
Although Beijing has tried to frame the Chinese coast guard’s actions as “legitimate and limited,” several countries have been quick to condemn China’s actions and express support for Manila’s efforts to defend its territorial interests.
In a statement, the U.S. State Department condemned “the dangerous actions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against the Philippines’ lawful maritime operations in the South China Sea.” The statement also said the actions of the Chinese vessels were an example of Beijing “using dangerous and escalatory actions” to enforce its “unlawful South China Sea maritime claims.”
Some analysts say the increased frequency of patrols by Manila and Beijing could increase the risk of miscalculation in the South China Sea.
“China’s strategy is to try to push adversaries into a position where they might make a mistake and that might give Beijing justification to use greater force,” Stephen Nagy, a regional security expert at the International Christian University of Japan, told VOA by telephone.
However, Koh said Beijing was unlikely to escalate tensions with the Philippines into a serious military conflict. (lt/ab)
