As Indonesia prepares to participate in US-led joint military exercises this month, it also agreed at a meeting this week to hold military exercises with China, a move that analysts say demonstrates Indonesia's non-aligned stance in the US-China rivalry.
The Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) is set to host the US-led Super Garuda Shield exercise with participation from dozens of countries, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, Germany, Singapore and Malaysia. The annual exercise will be held in the provinces of East Java, West Java and South Sumatra from August 26 to September 5.
Meanwhile, senior Indonesian and Chinese officials agreed to hold joint military exercises and reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing regional security, among other things, in a meeting on Tuesday (Aug. 13) in Jakarta, according to a statement from the Indonesian Foreign Ministry.
It was the first high-level meeting of the joint foreign and defense ministerial dialogue (2+2 SOM) that will be upgraded to a ministerial meeting by Indonesia's new government next year. President-elect Prabowo Subianto will take office in October.
The two countries agreed to launch a new 2+2 dialogue when President Joko Widodo met Chinese President Xi Jinping in October in Beijing.
“If the exercises take place next year, bilateral exercises with China will reflect Indonesia’s efforts to demonstrate its neutrality” based on a “free and active” foreign policy aimed at making it difficult for any major power to draw Indonesia into its sphere of influence,” said Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program.
However, if the exercises with China focus on combat operations and interoperability, rather than non-traditional security areas such as piracy and counterterrorism and are conducted in the contested South China Sea, it “will raise red flags for the US and its allies,” Yaacob added.
“Indonesia under Prabowo’s leadership must balance many factors when planning exercises with China, as the potential impact could be large,” he said. The US and its allies, including South Korea, France and Japan, could reconsider their decision to supply Indonesia with advanced weapons systems, he added.
Indonesia, like other Southeast Asian countries, has conducted joint exercises with the US and China.
Last year, China sent a destroyer and a navy frigate to participate at Indonesia's invitation in a multilateral naval exercise aimed at fostering cooperation in humanitarian operations and disaster management.
The US Navy, which also participated, described the exercise as enabling “exchanges that support multilateral cooperation.”
Indonesia's defense cooperation with China is considered to be stagnant, and mainly focuses on low-level exercises. But recently, Indonesia expressed its desire to hold more military exercises with China, in addition to ASEAN member states and the US.
In an interview with Nikkei Asia In July, Indonesian Army Chief of Staff (KSAD) General Maruli Simanjuntak said the Indonesian military was preparing to conduct joint exercises with China that could begin next year.
“Indonesia, like most of its neighbors, seeks pragmatic cooperation and wants to protect itself from China’s hegemonic ambitions,” said Gregory Poling, senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“This also explains why Jakarta would be open to low-level military exercises with China even though Indonesia prioritizes much stronger military ties with traditional partners such as the United States, Japan and Australia.”
The U.S. Navy SEALs and the Indonesian Navy Frogman Command (KOPASKA) held joint exercises in July. The exercises have been held annually since their bilateral defense talks in 2022.
Andreyka Natalegawa, a research fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS, said, “While Indonesia-China defense ties are clearly deepening, the United States remains the preferred partner for defense cooperation with Indonesia.”
He continued, “The depth, frequency, and institutionalization of U.S. bilateral and multilateral exercises with Indonesia are second to none, and it is highly unlikely that China will replace the United States as Indonesia’s primary defense partner of choice anytime soon.”
At the first 2+2 senior US-Indonesia foreign policy and defense dialogue in October 2023 in Washington, the US reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Indonesia’s defense forces as Jakarta’s “largest military engagement partner.” (about/after)
