Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has effectively announced his resignation, has helped transform Japan's foreign policy, increase its global role and accelerate military expansion – despite domestic opposition that led to his resignation.
In an unexpected announcement on Wednesday (Aug. 14), Kishida said he would not run again as chairman of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), meaning he will step down as prime minister after an internal party leadership election next month.
During Kishida’s three years in office, global geopolitical tensions rose sharply. Kishida responded by taking steps to align Japan more closely with the West and loosening Japan’s self-imposed post-World War II military restraints.
Kishida has also boosted Japan's defense budget. Under a five-year plan launched in 2022, Japan is on track to become the world's third-largest military spender, after the United States and China.
Under Kishida's leadership, Japan announced for the first time that it would buy missiles that could reach other countries, breaking a decades-long taboo on weapons that could be used offensively.
Kishida also deepened Japan's security ties with like-minded partners; not only strengthening its alliance with the United States, but also increasing cooperation with the Philippines, Australia, South Korea, and NATO.
Those policies largely continue the vision of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, who advocated a more assertive foreign policy. “But I think Kishida has gone beyond Abe in many ways,” said Daniel Sneider, a specialist in East Asia policy at Stanford University.
Under Kishida, Japan “moved beyond the narrow definition of self-defense that had characterized Japanese security policy for decades,” Sneider added.
The impact of the Ukrainian war
The main reason Kishida was able to enact so many significant changes to Japan's security policy was Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began four months after Kishida took office.
“Kishida understood very quickly that this was a huge turning point in postwar history,” Sneider said.
Even though the Ukrainian war is taking place on the other side of the world, Kishida views it as a violation of the basic principles of the post-World War II international order, “which for the first time has been the non-use of force to change borders,” Sneider said.
For many Japanese, the lesson from Ukraine is clear: the country needs a more proactive foreign policy, especially with neighboring Russia, China and North Korea increasingly intent on disrupting the U.S.-led regional order.
“The example of Ukraine is perfect for convincing the Japanese public that talking peacefully is not enough, something else needs to be done,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former member of the Japanese parliament and professor at Waseda University in Tokyo.
“Mr. Kishida used that rhetoric very well and it's not just rhetoric, but a reality in the world. Therefore, it's very convincing,” Nakabayashi said.
Kishida responded by immediately joining US-led economic sanctions against Russia. Japan also sent Ukraine massive amounts of humanitarian and military aid, albeit non-lethal, but unprecedented in Japan's modern history.
Taiwan Support
For Kishida, another foreign policy focus is Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China views as its own and has threatened to invade.
Japan would be at a huge disadvantage if a regional war over Taiwan erupted. Its westernmost inhabited island is just 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Taiwan. And Japan hosts more than 50,000 U.S. troops, who analysts say would likely be involved in a Taiwan conflict.
While Japan has not committed to defending Taiwan, Kishida has expanded Japan’s rhetorical support for the democratic island. He has also stepped up security cooperation with countries aimed at maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
In international forums, Kishida has repeatedly warned that “Today is Ukraine, tomorrow it may be East Asia,” a remark many see as an implicit reference to the danger of China invading Taiwan.
A hard legacy in the country
Kishida's more assertive and normative foreign policy has earned him admiration across the West, but his legacy at home is more complicated.
During his three years in office, Kishida has consistently enjoyed low approval ratings – a survey in July showed that only 15.5 percent of Japanese approved of his cabinet.
Many Japanese voters appear unhappy with Kishida’s handling of the economy. Not only have Kishida’s policies failed to reverse Japan’s long-standing stagnation, he and his cabinet have also struggled to respond to recent inflation, resulting in rising prices, especially after the Ukraine war.
Kishida's LDP party has also faced a series of domestic controversies, including involving millions of dollars in undocumented political funds.
According to Kobayashi, Kishida is more trying to protect his political friends than to find out who is responsible behind the alleged unaccounted for funds.
“The views of Kishida outside and inside Japan are very different,” he said. “He is highly respected by international leaders for his consistent role in protecting democracy. But looking at him from inside Japan, he lacks leadership qualities.” (th/uh)
