Three senior Iranian officials said only a ceasefire in Gaza could prevent Iran from retaliating directly against Israel. They linked the potential response to the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the region. The ceasefire is expected to take place this week.
Iran has vowed to respond decisively to Haniyeh's killing, which occurred during his visit to Tehran late last month. Israel has been accused of being behind the killing. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. The US Navy has deployed warships and submarines to the Middle East to bolster Israel's defenses.
A senior Iranian security official said Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if talks on Gaza failed or if Israel was seen as stalling negotiations. The official did not say how long Iran would wait before taking action.
With the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East rising after the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been engaged in intensive dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on how to orchestrate a retaliation, the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said.
The U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed in a statement Tuesday that Washington had asked its allies to help persuade Iran to ease tensions in the region. Three regional government sources said the talks with Tehran were aimed at avoiding escalation ahead of Gaza ceasefire talks scheduled to begin Thursday in Egypt or Qatar.
“We hope our response will be timely and in a way that does not threaten the possibility of a ceasefire,” Iran's mission to the UN said in a statement Friday. Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that calls for restraint were “contrary to the principles of international law.”
Iran's Foreign Ministry and Revolutionary Guard Corps did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Israeli prime minister's office and the U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“Something could happen this week by Iran and its proxies… That is the U.S. and Israel's evaluation,” White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
“If something happens this week, it could affect the talks we plan to hold on Thursday,” he added. Hamas cast doubt over the weekend on whether talks would resume. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without reaching a ceasefire agreement.
Many Israeli observers believe that Iran will respond soon after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran will “severely punish” Israel for the attack on Tehran.
Iran’s regional policy is decided by the elite Revolutionary Guards, which report directly to Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. Since taking office last month, Iran’s relatively moderate new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has continued to assert his anti-Israel stance and support for resistance movements across the region.
According to two sources, Iran is considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks, which would be the first since the war began in Gaza.
The representative will not be present in person at the meeting, but will be involved in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain diplomatic lines of communication” with the United States during the negotiations. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt have not commented on whether Iran will play an indirect role in the talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon's Hezbollah said Tehran would give negotiations a chance but would continue with its intention to retaliate.
According to one source, a ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran an excuse to respond in a more limited and “symbolic” manner. (ah/es)
