Yahya Sinwar, believed to be the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, is now the new political head of Hamas, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist group. Sinwar is also Hamas's military commander and is based in Gaza.
Analysts say Sinwar is unlikely to reach a ceasefire deal with Israel to end the fighting in Gaza and return the hostages. But a Hamas spokesman said Sinwar would continue negotiations.
VOA – Nicholas Heras of the New Lines Institute in Washington tells VOA that the unanimous selection of Yahya Sinwar as Hamas' new political chief shows that Gaza is now the center of attention, and not Qatar, where the political leaders are based.
Heras further said, “Now, Hamas is making a very clear statement to the world, not only to Israel, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt that the way for Hamas to control Gaza and basically Hamas, is to be willing to fight to the last drop of blood. This is very bitter, not only for the survival of Hamas as an organization, but from Hamas's point of view for the future of the Palestinian people. Hamas is signaling to Israel and anyone who works with them that they cannot separate Gaza and the future of Gaza from Hamas,” he explained.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it is now up to Yahya Sinwar whether he wants to reach a ceasefire agreement in the 10-month-long Gaza conflict. All this time, said Blinken, Sinwar “has been and will remain the main decider.” That is what would happen if the main negotiator of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, who is considered relatively more moderate, was still alive.
Khaled Hroub, a Hamas specialist at Northwestern University in Qatar, told France's Le Monde newspaper that “if Israel, the United States and their allies in the region and beyond hope to subdue Hamas through force, the response will be a more radical Hamas.” According to Hroub, he does not see Hamas softening as the US and Qatar try to reach a deal and hope it will reduce the current escalation between Israel and Iran.
Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA that Qatar has been trying for eight months to get a deal done, but Hamas is waiting for a cue from Iran. “They only listen to Iran and maybe also other external supporters, including Russia and China. The political objective and the military objective are now one. That means Qatar's influence is now reduced,” she said.
Israeli and US intelligence officials told the New York Times that Sinwar's strategy is to “continue to wage war on Gaza for as long as necessary to tarnish Israel's international reputation and damage its relationship with its main ally, the United States.”
Nicholas Heras said he saw Sinwar as being influenced by the assassinated Iranian Republican Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani. Sinwar even used Soleimani's playbook to confront Israel. “Soleimani created a strategy to create a network of proxies and partners that encircled Israel,” including Hamas, in an effort to destroy Israel.
“Over time, a series of conflicts with Israel will undermine the foundations of Israel economically, socially, politically, and then geopolitically. All of those elements are already present in the current conflict that began with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. And we see Soleimani's playbook being applied,” he explained.
Observers say Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are unwilling to reach a ceasefire agreement for their own political reasons. (ka/ab)
