In recent months, Serbia has engaged with the two main states of the European Union to reach strategic agreements. Some experts have interpreted the willingness of Western countries to cooperate with Serbia as an example of efforts to lure it away from Russia's orbit.
But two American professors, familiar with developments between Kosovo and Serbia, Charles Kupchan and David Kanin, told the Voice of America that Serbia's recent agreements with the West, although they improve Serbia's position vis-à-vis Kosovo, should not be interpreted as its decision on the side of the West. Mr. Kupchan and Mr. Kanin spoke about the deadlock in the dialogue process, the positions of the Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti and the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic and the impact that the United States elections may have on the region.
During a visit to Belgrade last month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz signed an agreement on the rare mineral lithium, vital to the production of electric cars. In April, during a visit to France, Serbian President Vucic asked to buy 12 fighter planes from France.
Some experts and world media have interpreted these increased commitments of the West towards Serbia as an example of efforts to lure Serbia away from Russia's orbit.
For experts on developments in Serbia and Kosovo, professors Charles Kupchan from Georgetown University and David Kanin from Johns Hopkins University, these agreements do not signal Serbia's alignment with the West.
“Serbia has been successful, but this should not be interpreted as a sign that Serbia has chosen the West. He did not choose the West. Vucic balances Russia, the European Union, the Americans, the Chinese and the Turks and everyone else he needs or wants to deal with and he does it very skillfully… He plays with the Russians, with the Americans. The Russians understand this, but the Americans don't. We behave as if he has chosen the West, while Russia does not come out with statements to say that Serbia has chosen the West,” says Professor Kanin.
For the professor of Georgetown University, Kupchan, the latest agreements are a continuation of the policy that Mr. Vucic is pursuing with all countries despite the current geopolitical divisions, which have placed the West and the East on diametrically opposite axis.
“I do not see this as a turning point, nor a sign that Mr. Vučić is turning his back on his ties with Russia and China and that he is putting his feet in the West. Mr. Vucic is capable of engaging with both parties. He has reached agreements with Berlin and Paris recently. But I believe he will do the same with Moscow and Beijing in the near future”he says.
In addition to these agreements with the Europeans, Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the former president and the current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, has expressed interest in an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars in Belgrade, to turn the bombed former defense ministry building into a hotel. in 1999 by NATO.
Serbia, which in recent years under the leadership of President Vučić has slipped towards autocracy according to human rights organizations, has pursued a policy of closer relations with the West while maintaining close ties with Russia and China. Serbia is the only EU candidate country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine. But Belgrade sells weapons to the Ukrainian military through third parties.
But the two experts differ in their assessments of what impact this attitude of the West towards Serbia will have on the dialogue with Kosovo.
“Serbia has once again become the most important country in the region, which has good relations with everyone. Kosovo, on the other hand, is led by a prime minister with whom it seems no one wants to work. And this gives an advantage to Serbia… 25 years ago, when NATO carried out the bombing campaign, Serbia looked like a loser, isolated. Now Serbia is anything but a loser, it is by no means isolated and has scored many successes in the diplomacy it is pursuing”. says Mr. Kanin.
Mr. Kanin, former CIA analyst for the Balkans, says that these successes will enable Mr. Vučić to continue insisting on the creation of the Association, which according to him has become an “obsession” for Western diplomats.
Mr. Kanin says that “the assessment that the association will integrate the Kosovo Serbs into the institutions of Kosovo is wrong” and that Serbia is in a very good position to “patiently but persistently press for it”.
“Kosovo is facing a very difficult situation, with a prime minister who is unpopular outside Kosovo, but who is clear that the creation of the association will undermine Kosovo's sovereignty”, he adds.
Professor Kupchan, a senior analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that the European Union will continue to focus on the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, but does not think that Serbia will benefit from the increased attention of the West.
“I don't believe that the attention of the West strengthens the diplomatic weight of Serbia. I think that the European Union will continue to promote the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia as it deems necessary. Their efforts are focused on completing this process. Could stronger economic relations between France, Germany and Serbia have a positive impact on the overall relationship? Yes, because more frequent contacts and greater economic ties are better than less, but I still wouldn't consider these deals to be game-changing.” says Mr. Kupchan.
He says that he shares the concerns that “the dialogue process has reached a dead end” and that both sides are responsible for this.
“Mr. Kurti's measures, although they may stand in political and legal terms, were unnecessary in strategic terms, because they were unnecessarily provocative. For example, the placement of mayors of municipalities in the north who were elected with a negligible percentage of votes; this was followed by the car number plates and later by the dinar issue,” says Mr. Kupchan.
“All these actions are justified, because Kosovo is trying to extend its full sovereignty, but they were not useful in terms of relations with Serbia. Belgrade, for its part, mobilized forces along the border with Kosovo. We had a violent episode in Banjska and the one who pleaded guilty to this act of terrorism still walk free in Serbia. We then had a letter from the Serbian Prime Minister who expressed reservations about the agreement, in which she said that we will never recognize Kosovo. These are steps backwards and as a result we can say that the normalization process has stalled,” he adds.
Last month, the US government announced that it appointed diplomat Alexander Kasanof as special envoy for the Western Balkans, following the end of the mandate of diplomat Gabriel Escobar. Early next year, the European Union is expected to appoint a new mediator to replace Slovakian diplomat Miroslav Lajčak.
Mr. Kupchan, who has worked in two American administrations, that of President Clinton and President Obama, as the director for Europe in the National Security Council, expects that the pressure on Pristina and Belgrade will return after a pause due to the elections in the European Union and in The United States remains optimistic about an epilogue to this process.
“I think that playing the card of Russia, of China, is not an option in the long term because of the geographical location. The Balkans are part of a larger European space. The peoples of the region should feel blessed, lucky. Those who live in Central Asia, in Armenia, in Azerbaijan, that is, close to Russia, close to China, live in an uncertain area in an indefinite future. The Balkans is not such an area, it is in Europe and therefore I think that this process will come to a positive end,” he says.
But Mr. Kanin considers that the dialogue is a process that has failed to produce results and during the last 30 years is hostage to the rotation of Western diplomats, who have failed to move the process forward. According to him, there is no will to move and as such the dialogue was a failed process from the beginning.
“Serbs know this. Kosovars know it too. Vučić buys time through the advantages he has secured through regional diplomacy and contacts with international leaders, while Kurti perseveres and tries to win the next elections and keep the Serbs at bay.” he says.
According to Mr. Kanin, Washington and Brussels should reconsider their entire approach to the region and leave it up to the parties to reach agreements based on their preferences, even when the solutions may include plans like the one between former President Thaçi with President Vucic in 2018.
“We will not be able to impose a liberal, multi-ethnic, transparent and Western democracy in the region. We will not be able to impose peace and an end to conflicts. We have failed to do this over the past three decades. I think we need to challenge the locals to find ways to work together,” says Mr. Kanin.
Even Mr. Kupchan is of the opinion that the conclusion of the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia will be in the hands of the leaders of both countries and their tendency to make difficult decisions.
“Playing the nationalism card is the easiest thing to do. But convincing the public that the time has come to put aside ethnic nationalism and look to the future is the bravest thing they can do. We're not at that point yet, but I think it's only a matter of time. These obstacles will be overcome when leaders are ready to take bold steps,” he adds.
Will the American elections have an impact on the unresolved issues between Kosovo and Serbia?
According to Mr. Kupchan, in this election cycle, the United States is very focused on the domestic plan, and foreign policy, dominated by Ukraine and the war in Gaza, will not be a priority, but he nevertheless expects new energy in the dialogue process. after the US elections and the consolidation of senior officials in the EU.
For Mr Kanin, the impact will depend on the winner of the election. According to him, President Trump has shown that he is unpredictable in his approach and that he changes his position, while, in his opinion, the expected Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, who he says does not know much about the Balkans, has most likely to continue the same policies towards the region.
