TEL AVIV – The Middle East braced for the possibility of increased violence on Sunday after Israeli authorities said a rocket from Lebanon hit a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Twelve children and teenagers were killed in the attack, which the Israeli military described as the deadliest attack on civilians since October 7. There were also fears of a wider regional war between Israel and the Hezbollah group, which made a rare statement to deny responsibility.
During the evening hours, the Israeli military said it struck a series of targets in Lebanon, although the intensity of the attacks was similar to months of cross-border fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. Hezbollah also announced that it carried out other attacks. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Saturday's attack came at a delicate moment. Israel and Hamas are negotiating a ceasefire proposal to end the 10-month war in Gaza.
Let's take a look at the broader implications:
What happened?
On Saturday, a rocket hit a soccer field where dozens of children and teenagers were playing in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, about 12 kilometers from southern Lebanon and near the border with Syria. 12 of them were killed and 20 others were wounded, according to the Israeli army. An 11-year-old boy has not yet been found, residents told Israeli media.
“I feel a darkness inside and around me. Nothing like this has ever happened here,” said resident Anan Abu Saleh. “There is no way to explain it. I saw children; I don't want to tell what I saw, but it's terrible, really terrible. We need more security.” On Sunday, the coffins were carried through a crowd of thousands.
The Druze belong to a religious sect that emerged from Shiite Islam. There are Druze communities in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. There are about 140,000 Druze in Israel and 25,000 in the Golan Heights, which are under Israeli control, says Yusri Hazran of Hebrew University.
The Druze are considered among Israel's most loyal citizens, although those in the Golan Heights have a more strained relationship with the authorities. Israel took the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Middle East war and annexed them in 1981. Much of the international community considers the area to be occupied territory. Although Druze leaders in the Golan pledge their allegiance to Syria, relations with Israel are largely good.
“Big heart, very big. I can't explain my feelings,” said Hassan Shakir, a resident of Majdal Shams.
What might this mean for the wider war?
Since the conflict in Gaza began, attacks along the Israel-Lebanon border have raised the specter of a full-scale war, but the death toll among young people from Saturday's attack could force Israel to hit back harder.
After the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed back from a visit to the United States and warned Hezbollah that “it will pay a heavy price for this attack, a price it has not paid so far.” Israeli army chief of staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said the attack was carried out with a Falaq rocket, with an explosive charge of 53 kilograms.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that “all indicators” prove that the missile was launched by Hezbollah. He said that Israel has the right to defend itself, but that the United States does not want an escalation of the conflict.
Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel the day after the October 7 Hamas attack. Israel has responded by striking with airstrikes and drones, saying they targeted Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Most of the attacks have been concentrated in areas near the border, although Israel has also killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders further inside Lebanon. Tens of thousands of residents have been evacuated from the border areas.
Since October, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed over 500 people, most of them members of Hezbollah, but also nearly 90 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians were killed.
Hezbollah has far superior firepower than Hamas. Starting a war in northern Israel while it remains engaged in Gaza would greatly increase the burden on the military, Barak Ben-Zur, a researcher at the International Counter-Terrorism Institute, told reporters. “We don't have the capacity to wage war in both countries at the same time,” he added.
In Lebanon, some were preparing for further attacks from Israel. Lebanon's national airline announced that it has delayed the arrival of eight flights in Beirut until Monday morning, without giving an explanation for the reason. Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati made several emergency calls to diplomats and officials, his office announced.
“I don't think there will be attacks, but nothing should be ruled out when it comes to the enemy,” said Abdallah Dalal, a resident of the Lebanese border village of Chebaa. Israeli officials said the rocket that hit Majdal Shams was launched from a nearby area.
A possible conflict would probably also involve Iran, which has warned Israel that a strong response to the attack on the Golan Heights will bring “unprecedented consequences”. The shadow war between Israel and Iran was on full display in April, when Iran launched 300 missiles and drones at Israel; most of them were intercepted. The attack was in response to the assassination of an Iranian general.
The UN Secretary General called for maximum restraint from all parties.
How would this affect the war in Gaza?
An Egyptian official said the attack on the Golan Heights could add urgency to negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.
“The two fronts are connected”, he said. “A cease-fire in Gaza will bring a cease-fire with Hezbollah.” The Egyptian official spoke on condition of anonymity.
Through a statement, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry called on all influential international factors to “immediately intervene to spare the people of the region further devastating consequences from the expansion of the conflict.”
Officials from the United States, Egypt and Qatar met with Israeli officials in Rome on Sunday in the latest effort to reach a deal. The head of Israel's Mossad intelligence service, David Barnea, then returned home. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office announced that negotiations will continue.
