VOA —
Two years since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan, there is a growing consensus that the country is again a hotbed for terrorist activity that has already begun to affect the region – or because it has not been able to reach Western countries.
Several assessments that confirmed this were conveyed by the UN sanctions monitoring team. They warned in a report in June that the Taliban “have not complied with all counter-terrorism provisions” laid out in the Doha Accord – the deal that was a precondition for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
The report, compiled on the basis of intelligence from UN member states, warns instead that “terrorist groups have greater freedom of maneuver under the de facto authority of the Taliban.”
The various groups are “putting this to good use,” the report added. “The threat of terrorism is increasing, both in Afghanistan and in the region.”
A Taliban supporter rides a motorbike with a Taliban flag during celebrations for the second anniversary of the country’s takeover at Ahmad Shah Massoud square in Kabul on August 15, 2023. (Photo: AFP)
Some estimates say there are around 20 terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Some of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries have even expressed their concerns.
Pakistan, for example, has repeatedly stated that there is an increasing number of deaths related to terrorism. Many of these have occurred along its border with Afghanistan.
The Taliban rejected the accusation.
Earlier this month, a Taliban official echoed supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s decree banning cross-border incursions into Pakistan.
Taliban Chief Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid even went so far as to tell VOA that the Taliban fighters have essentially ended the terrorist threat in Afghanistan.
“Those found guilty of engaging in such activities will be brought to justice and punished according to our legal system,” he said, explaining that the ISIS terror group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, known as IS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, had been “annihilated by the operation Taliban counterterrorism.
The Taliban have also received open support from US President Joe Biden when he indicated that the Taliban are keeping their word. Biden’s remarks caused a stir last month.
Taliban members on the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul on the street near the US embassy in Kabul. (Photo: Reuters)
“Remember what I said about Afghanistan? I said Al-Qaida would not be there. I said the group would no longer be there. I said we will be assisted by the Taliban,” Biden said when answering a question regarding the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
“Now what happened?” asked Biden. “Read your news. I am right.”
A US official who spoke to VOA on condition of anonymity said Biden’s remarks referred in part to the Taliban’s role in eliminating the leader of the ISIS terror cell that was the culprit of the August 2021 Kabul airport bombing, which killed 13 US troops and some 170 Afghans.
But other US officials are still wary, given the long-term plans of Al-Qaida and ISIS-Khorasan who are both intent on, if not capable of, attacking their targets: the US and Western countries.
“Our intelligence is declining,” US Central Command Commander General Michael “Erik” Kurilla told the US Senate Armed Services Committee in March, when asked about the military’s ability to track the two terror groups.
“I believe we can see the outline (plot) of the attack,” he said. “Sometimes we lack the details to see the big picture.”
Some former officials have wondered how long it will take before Al-Qaida or ISIS-Khorasan are able to make a breakthrough.
Men watch over armed Taliban security personnel as a convoy of vehicles during a parade in Kabul on August 15, 2023, as the Taliban celebrate the second anniversary of their takeover. (Photo: AFP)
“Neither Al-Qaida nor (ISIS) in Afghanistan have the capability to attack US interests right now, but I don’t think we can assume that for the long term,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, former senior counterterrorism official and coordinator of the sanctions monitoring team. United Nations, in a recent webinar, hosted by the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.
Other experts share the same concerns.
“Afghanistan (now) looks very much like Afghanistan before the September 11, 2001 attacks, with a number of groups allegedly active,” said Colin Clarke, research director of global intelligence firm The Soufan Group.
“Terrorist groups are growing and are growing amidst instability. And that’s what we’re dealing with right now,” he told VOA last June. (rd/rs)
