Some vaccine companies have the potential to earn billions of dollars more as the United States prepares to distribute additional doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to strengthen American protection against the virus.
How much the producers will earn depends on how big the distribution in the market will be.
Who should take a booster dose was a decision that was accompanied by debate as advisors to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) spent two days this week reviewing the evidence. CDC Director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky approved most of the categories selected by them: people 65 and older, residents of nursing homes and those aged 50 to 64 who have chronic health problems, such as diabetes, who will be offered extra doses after it has been six months since the last dose of Pfizer vaccine. People 18 and older with health problems can decide for themselves if they want a booster dose.
However, the crisis is constantly evolving and some senior US health officials expect boosting doses to be more widely authorized in the coming weeks or months. And this, plus the steady increase in initial vaccinations, could mean a huge profit on sales and in particular profits for Pfizer and Moderna.
“Opportunity is honestly reflected in the billions of people around the world who will need vaccinations and extra doses,” said Jefferies analyst Michael Yee.
The Wall Street Stock Exchange is closely following developments. Analysts’ average forecast for Moderna’s revenue in 2022 has risen by 35% since President Joe Biden unveiled his boost plan in mid-August.
Most vaccinations to date in the United States have been from Pfizer, which developed its vaccine with German company BioNTech, followed by Moderna. They have vaccinated about 99 million and 68 million people respectively. Johnson & Johnson is the third company with about 14 million vaccinated.
It is not yet known how many people will be vaccinated. But Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen expects booster doses alone to bring about $ 26 billion in global sales next year to Pfizer and BioNTech and about $ 14 billion to Moderna if they are approved for almost all Americans.
These companies can also gain further business from people who initially received other vaccines. In Britain, which plans to offer boosting doses to all people over the age of 50 and other vulnerable categories, a panel of experts has recommended that the Pfizer vaccine be the main choice, with Modern as the alternative.
Analyst Andersen expects Moderna, which has no other products on the market, to generate a profit of nearly $ 13 billion next year from all sales of COVID-19 vaccines if additional doses are authorized for widespread use.
Potential vaccine profits are harder to estimate for Pfizer, but company executives have said they expect their pre-tax profit margin on vaccines to be above the high quota of over 20%. income. That would translate into a profit of about $ 7 billion next year from additional doses alone, based on sales forecast by Ms. Andersen.
J&J and European company AstraZeneca have said they do not intend to benefit from their COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic.